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The ASX 200 is up over 8% year-to-date as 2024 closes, driven by strong performances in financial stocks, particularly the Commonwealth Bank, which rose 40%. In contrast, the tech sector surged over 50%, while energy and materials faced declines. Looking ahead, forecasts for 2025 vary, with predictions for the ASX 200 ranging from 7900 to 9300 points, influenced by geopolitical developments and potential RBA rate cuts.
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Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicts that Bitcoin's market cap could surpass gold's within five to eight years, driven by record momentum and rising institutional adoption. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap stands at $2.13 trillion, about 14% of gold's $17.8 trillion value. This shift is underscored by Bitcoin ETFs now exceeding gold ETFs in total assets under management, reflecting a significant change in investor sentiment towards Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.
Ohio House Republican leader Derek Merrin has introduced the Ohio Bitcoin Reserve Act, allowing the state treasurer to purchase Bitcoin as part of asset allocation. This initiative aims to protect tax dollars from devaluation and embrace technological advancements in finance. Similar legislation has been proposed in Texas and Pennsylvania, reflecting a growing trend among states to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Ethereum, having transitioned to a Proof-of-Stake mechanism in September 2022, is poised for significant growth as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization gains traction. Bitwise predicts Ethereum could capture over $100 billion in fees from this market by 2025, bolstered by strong whale accumulation and a favorable regulatory environment.Currently, Ethereum holds an 81% market share in tokenized assets, with key holders increasing their stakes. A sustained price breakout above $4,093 could see ETH rally towards $4,380, while a drop below $3,550 would invalidate bullish prospects.
French MEP Sarah Knafo has called for the EU to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" to enhance financial autonomy and combat inflation. Citing El Salvador's successful Bitcoin adoption and the evolving stance of major economies, she criticized current EU financial strategies as overly restrictive and urged for a shift towards decentralized finance. Knafo emphasized the potential of France's nuclear energy for Bitcoin mining and advocated for tax reforms to support cryptocurrency holders.
Dow futures remained stable as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision following a nine-day losing streak for the index, its longest since 1978. With a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, investors are also focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for future guidance. Market performance on Fed days has been notably weaker under Powell compared to previous chairs, with most sectors closing in the red, except for consumer discretionary, which gained 0.28%.
The stock market experienced a slight pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 facing mild distribution days. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, which could influence market trends and investment strategies.
European markets are under pressure due to political instability, particularly following Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government collapse and early elections in Germany. Despite these challenges, the DAX 40 reached record highs, buoyed by France's political turmoil, while UK economic indicators show resilience amid inflationary pressures and steady wage growth. The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates, contributing to ongoing volatility in European indices.
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The cryptocurrency market surged to a record $3.73 trillion, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $108,135, as traders anticipated a third consecutive rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Major altcoins like Solana and Litecoin also saw significant gains, driven by increased demand for privacy-focused coins following US sanctions on North Korean entities. As the market remains cautious amid geopolitical tensions, the Altcoin Season Index indicates a shift towards Bitcoin, reflecting a risk-averse sentiment among investors ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.
EUR/JPY and USD/JPY continue to rise, with EUR/JPY reaching ¥162.47 and targeting resistance at ¥163.60-¥163.89. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is trading near a 13-month low at $0.6337, with minor resistance at $0.6435. Upcoming Fed and BoJ rate meetings may influence these trends.
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